Juguetes JR
Enviado por Brandon Mendoza • 14 de Febrero de 2019 • Ensayo • 935 Palabras (4 Páginas) • 352 Visitas
[pic 1][pic 2]
Instituto Politécnico Nacional
Unidad Profesional Interdisciplinaria de Ingeniería Ciencias Sociales y Administrativas
Pronósticos e Inventarios
Mendoza Hernández Brandon Rene
2014601183
3IM53
Cruz Rosas Rosa María
Historia de la empresa
Juguetes JR es una empresa que nace con el miedo de perder un trabajo fijo y se toma la decisión de empezar a ser fabricante de juguetes de plástico con más de 13 años de existencia, empezando en la cochera de una casa con una máquina de inyección que después fue vendida y actualmente se cuenta con 3 máquinas de mejores condiciones, y algunas otras, máquinas para facilitar y aumentar la producción, también ha incrementado la gama de productos con más de 12 productos de distintas características; se ha tratado de competir en otra rama de los plásticos como el mercado de trastes, siendo poca la capacidad de producción para este mercado.
Misión.
Brindar un servicio competitivo, de calidad y puntualidad con productos 100% mexicanos para el mercado nacional, en el que el consumidor se sienta cómodo con precios y actitudes hacia el mismo.
Visión.
Ser una empresa fabricante y distribuidora de plásticos competitiva para el mercado nacional, no solo de juguetes sino de otras piezas plásticas para diversos sectores de la industria.
¿Por qué se eligió el producto?
Este producto se eligió en gran parte porque es tomado de una empresa nacional que intenta salir adelante con los juguetes de plástico, ya que estos son muy poco consumidos hoy en día y se me hizo interesante poder aplicar las técnicas de pronósticos en un caso más real. El juguete que formo a parte del estudio es un constructor tipo revolvedora. Los datos se centraron principalmente en la zona de Iztapalapa donde se encuentra ubicada esta empresa.
Promedio Móvil Simple con N=2 | |||||
Mes | Ventas | P | (V-P) | [pic 3] | |
ago-13 | 38.85 |
|
|
| |
sep-13 | 40.69 |
|
|
| |
oct-13 | 43.83 | 39.77 | 4.06 | 16.48 | |
nov-13 | 40.8 | 42.26 | -1.46 | 2.13 | |
dic-13 | 40.2 | 42.32 | -2.11 | 4.47 | |
ene-14 | 35.53 | 40.50 | -4.97 | 24.70 | |
feb-14 | 34.75 | 37.87 | -3.12 | 9.70 | |
mar-14 | 35.24 | 35.14 | 0.10 | 0.01 | |
abr-14 | 36.14 | 35.00 | 1.15 | 1.31 | |
may-14 | 37.2 | 35.69 | 1.51 | 2.28 | |
jun-14 | 38.07 | 36.67 | 1.40 | 1.96 | |
jul-14 | 40.61 | 37.64 | 2.97 | 8.85 | |
ago-14 | 41.16 | 39.34 | 1.82 | 3.31 | |
sep-14 | 38.94 | 40.89 | -1.95 | 3.78 | |
oct-14 | 39.39 | 40.05 | -0.66 | 0.44[pic 4] | |
nov-14 | 39.11 | 39.17 | -0.05 | 0.00 | |
dic-14 | 40.7 | 39.25 | 1.45 | 2.10 | |
ene-15 | 38.14 | 39.91 | -1.77 | 3.12 | |
feb-15 | 42.22 | 39.42 | 2.80 | 7.84 | |
mar-15 | 43.26 | 40.18 | 3.08 | 9.49 | |
abr-15 | 41.2 | 42.74 | -1.54 | 2.37 | |
may-15 | 41.68 | 42.23 | -0.55 | 0.30 | |
jun-15 | 40.66 | 41.44 | -0.78 | 0.61 | |
jul-15 | 43.23 | 41.17 | 2.06 | 4.24 | |
ago-15 | 43.08 | 41.95 | 1.14 | 1.29 | |
sep-15 | 42.81 | 43.16 | -0.34 | 0.12 | |
oct-15 | 46.87 | 42.95 | 3.93 | 15.41 | |
nov-15 | 45.88 | 44.84 | 1.04 | 1.08 | |
dic-15 | 45.95 | 46.38 | -0.42 | 0.18 | |
ene-16 | 50.66 | 45.92 | 4.74 | 22.52 | |
feb-16 | 51.5 | 48.31 | 3.20 | 10.21 | |
mar-16 | 51.07 | 51.08 | -0.01 | 0.00 | |
abr-16 | 52.45 | 51.29 | 1.17 | 1.36 | |
may-16 | 54.41 | 51.76 | 2.65 | 7.02 | |
jun-16 | 57.22 | 53.43 | 3.79 | 14.36 | |
jul-16 | 55.89 | 55.82 | 0.08 | 0.01 | |
ago-16 | 53.49 | 56.56 | -3.07 | 9.39 | |
sep-16 | 51.11 | 54.69 | -3.58 | 12.82 | |
oct-16 | 50.91 | 52.30 | -1.39 | 1.93 | |
nov-16 | 47.35 | 51.01 | -3.66 | 13.40 | |
dic-16 | 47.01 | 49.13 | -2.12 | 4.49 | |
ene-17 | 46.23 | 47.18 | -0.95 | 0.90 | |
feb-17 | 47.42 | 46.62 | 0.80 | 0.64 | |
mar-17 | 46.59 | 46.83 | -0.23 | 0.06 | |
abr-17 | 46.08 | 47.01 | -0.93 | 0.86 | |
may-17 | 43.03 | 46.34 | -3.31 | 10.92 | |
jun-17 | 45.6 | 44.56 | 1.05 | 1.09 | |
jul-17 | 45.01 | 44.32 | 0.70 | 0.48 | |
ago-17 | 43.34 | 45.31 | -1.97 | 3.86 | |
sep-17 | 43.5 | 44.18 | -0.67 | 0.46 | |
oct-17 |
| 43.42 |
| 244.36 | |
Promedio Móvil Doble | |||||
Mes | Ventas | PMS | PMD | ||
ago-13 | 38.85 |
|
| ||
sep-13 | 40.69 |
|
| ||
oct-13 | 43.83 | 39.77 |
| ||
nov-13 | 40.8 | 42.26 |
| ||
dic-13 | 40.2 | 42.32 | 41.02 | ||
ene-14 | 35.53 | 40.50 | 42.29 | ||
feb-14 | 34.75 | 37.87 | 41.41 | ||
mar-14 | 35.24 | 35.14 | 39.18 | ||
abr-14 | 36.14 | 35.00 | 36.50 | ||
may-14 | 37.2 | 35.69 | 35.07 | ||
jun-14 | 38.07 | 36.67 | 35.34 | ||
jul-14 | 40.61 | 37.64 | 36.18 | ||
ago-14 | 41.16 | 39.34 | 37.15 | ||
sep-14 | 38.94 | 40.89 | 38.49 | ||
oct-14 | 39.39 | 40.05 | 40.11[pic 5] | ||
nov-14 | 39.11 | 39.17 | 40.47 | ||
dic-14 | 40.7 | 39.25 | 39.61 | ||
ene-15 | 38.14 | 39.91 | 39.21 | ||
feb-15 | 42.22 | 39.42 | 39.58 | ||
mar-15 | 43.26 | 40.18 | 39.66 | ||
abr-15 | 41.2 | 42.74 | 39.80 | ||
may-15 | 41.68 | 42.23 | 41.46 | ||
jun-15 | 40.66 | 41.44 | 42.49 | ||
jul-15 | 43.23 | 41.17 | 41.84 | ||
ago-15 | 43.08 | 41.95 | 41.31 | ||
sep-15 | 42.81 | 43.16 | 41.56 | ||
oct-15 | 46.87 | 42.95 | 42.55 | ||
nov-15 | 45.88 | 44.84 | 43.05 | ||
dic-15 | 45.95 | 46.38 | 43.89 | ||
ene-16 | 50.66 | 45.92 | 45.61 | ||
feb-16 | 51.5 | 48.31 | 46.15 | ||
mar-16 | 51.07 | 51.08 | 47.11 | ||
abr-16 | 52.45 | 51.29 | 49.69 | ||
may-16 | 54.41 | 51.76 | 51.18 | ||
jun-16 | 57.22 | 53.43 | 51.52 | ||
jul-16 | 55.89 | 55.82 | 52.60 | ||
ago-16 | 53.49 | 56.56 | 54.62 | ||
sep-16 | 51.11 | 54.69 | 56.19 | ||
oct-16 | 50.91 | 52.30 | 55.62 | ||
nov-16 | 47.35 | 51.01 | 53.50 | ||
dic-16 | 47.01 | 49.13 | 51.66 | ||
ene-17 | 46.23 | 47.18 | 50.07 | ||
feb-17 | 47.42 | 46.62 | 48.16 | ||
mar-17 | 46.59 | 46.83 | 46.90 | ||
abr-17 | 46.08 | 47.01 | 46.72 | ||
may-17 | 43.03 | 46.34 | 46.92 | ||
jun-17 | 45.6 | 44.56 | 46.67 | ||
jul-17 | 45.01 | 44.32 | 45.45 | ||
ago-17 | 43.34 | 45.31 | 44.44 | ||
sep-17 | 43.5 | 44.18 | 44.81 | ||
Aproximación Exponencial Simple con ᾳ=0.5 | |||||
Mes | Ventas | P | ᾳ(V-P) | P+ᾳ(V-P)[pic 6] | |
ago-13 | 38.85 | 38.85 | 0.00 | 38.85 | |
sep-13 | 40.69 | 38.85 | 0.92 | 39.77 | |
oct-13 | 43.83 | 39.77 | 2.03 | 41.80 | |
nov-13 | 40.80 | 41.80 | -0.50 | 41.30 | |
dic-13 | 40.20 | 41.30 | -0.55 | 40.75 | |
ene-14 | 35.53 | 40.75 | -2.61 | 38.14 | |
feb-14 | 34.75 | 38.14 | -1.70 | 36.45 | |
mar-14 | 35.24 | 36.45 | -0.60 | 35.84 | |
abr-14 | 36.14 | 35.84 | 0.15 | 35.99 | |
may-14 | 37.20 | 35.99 | 0.60 | 36.60 | |
jun-14 | 38.07 | 36.60 | 0.74 | 37.33 | |
jul-14 | 40.61 | 37.33 | 1.64 | 38.97 | |
ago-14 | 41.16 | 38.97 | 1.09 | 40.07[pic 7] | |
sep-14 | 38.94 | 40.07 | -0.56 | 39.50 | |
oct-14 | 39.39 | 39.50 | -0.06 | 39.45 | |
nov-14 | 39.11 | 39.45 | -0.17 | 39.28 | |
dic-14 | 40.70 | 39.28 | 0.71 | 39.99 | |
ene-15 | 38.14 | 39.99 | -0.92 | 39.06 | |
feb-15 | 42.22 | 39.06 | 1.58 | 40.64 | |
mar-15 | 43.26 | 40.64 | 1.31 | 41.95 | |
abr-15 | 41.20 | 41.95 | -0.38 | 41.58 | |
may-15 | 41.68 | 41.58 | 0.05 | 41.63 | |
jun-15 | 40.66 | 41.63 | -0.48 | 41.14 | |
jul-15 | 43.23 | 41.14 | 1.04 | 42.19 | |
ago-15 | 43.08 | 42.19 | 0.45 | 42.63 | |
sep-15 | 42.81 | 42.63 | 0.09 | 42.72 | |
oct-15 | 46.87 | 42.72 | 2.07 | 44.80 | |
nov-15 | 45.88 | 44.80 | 0.54 | 45.34 | |
dic-15 | 45.95 | 45.34 | 0.31 | 45.64 | |
ene-16 | 50.66 | 45.64 | 2.51 | 48.15 | |
feb-16 | 51.50 | 48.15 | 1.67 | 49.83 | |
mar-16 | 51.07 | 49.83 | 0.62 | 50.45 | |
abr-16 | 52.45 | 50.45 | 1.00 | 51.45 | |
may-16 | 54.41 | 51.45 | 1.48 | 52.93 | |
jun-16 | 57.22 | 52.93 | 2.15 | 55.07 | |
jul-16 | 55.89 | 55.07 | 0.41 | 55.48 | |
ago-16 | 53.49 | 55.48 | -1.00 | 54.49 | |
sep-16 | 51.11 | 54.49 | -1.69 | 52.80 | |
oct-16 | 50.91 | 52.80 | -0.94 | 51.85 | |
nov-16 | 47.35 | 51.85 | -2.25 | 49.60 | |
dic-16 | 47.01 | 49.60 | -1.30 | 48.31 | |
ene-17 | 46.23 | 48.31 | -1.04 | 47.27 | |
feb-17 | 47.42 | 47.27 | 0.08 | 47.34 | |
mar-17 | 46.59 | 47.34 | -0.38 | 46.97 | |
abr-17 | 46.08 | 46.97 | -0.44 | 46.52 | |
may-17 | 43.03 | 46.52 | -1.75 | 44.78 | |
jun-17 | 45.60 | 44.78 | 0.41 | 45.19 | |
jul-17 | 45.01 | 45.19 | -0.09 | 45.10 | |
ago-17 | 43.34 | 45.10 | -0.88 | 44.22 | |
sep-17 | 43.50 | 44.22 | -0.36 | 43.86 | |
oct-17 |
| 43.86 |
|
| |
Aproximación Exponencial Doble con ᾳ=0.5 | |||||
Mes | Ventas | AES (P) | P't | ᾳ(P-P't)[pic 8] | PT=P't+ᾳ(P-P't) |
ago-13 | 38.85 | 38.85 | 38.85 | 0.00 | 38.85 |
sep-13 | 40.69 | 39.77 | 38.85 | 0.46 | 39.31 |
oct-13 | 43.83 | 41.80 | 39.31 | 1.25 | 40.56 |
nov-13 | 40.80 | 41.30 | 40.56 | 0.37 | 40.93 |
dic-13 | 40.20 | 40.75 | 40.93 | -0.09 | 40.84 |
ene-14 | 35.53 | 38.14 | 40.84 | -1.35 | 39.49 |
feb-14 | 34.75 | 36.45 | 39.49 | -1.52 | 37.97 |
mar-14 | 35.24 | 35.84 | 37.97 | -1.06 | 36.90 |
abr-14 | 36.14 | 35.99 | 36.90 | -0.46 | 36.45 |
may-14 | 37.20 | 36.60 | 36.45 | 0.07 | 36.52 |
jun-14 | 38.07 | 37.33 | 36.52 | 0.41 | 36.93 |
jul-14 | 40.61 | 38.97 | 36.93 | 1.02 | 37.95 |
ago-14 | 41.16 | 40.07 | 37.95 | 1.06 | 39.01 |
sep-14 | 38.94 | 39.50 | 39.01 | 0.25 | 39.26 |
oct-14 | 39.39 | 39.45 | 39.26 | 0.10 | 39.35 |
nov-14 | 39.11 | 39.28 | 39.35 | -0.04 | 39.31 |
dic-14 | 40.70 | 39.99 | 39.31 | 0.34 | 39.65 |
ene-15 | 38.14 | 39.06 | 39.65 | -0.29 | 39.36 |
feb-15 | 42.22 | 40.64 | 39.36 | 0.64 | 40.00 |
mar-15 | 43.26 | 41.95 | 40.00 | 0.98 | 40.98 |
abr-15 | 41.20 | 41.58 | 40.98 | 0.30 | 41.28 |
may-15 | 41.68 | 41.63 | 41.28 | 0.18 | 41.45 |
jun-15 | 40.66 | 41.14 | 41.45 | -0.15 | 41.30 |
jul-15 | 43.23 | 42.19 | 41.30 | 0.44 | 41.74 |
ago-15 | 43.08 | 42.63 | 41.74 | 0.45 | 42.19 |
sep-15 | 42.81 | 42.72 | 42.19 | 0.27 | 42.45 |
oct-15 | 46.87 | 44.80 | 42.45 | 1.17 | 43.63 |
nov-15 | 45.88 | 45.34 | 43.63 | 0.86 | 44.48 |
dic-15 | 45.95 | 45.64 | 44.48 | 0.58 | 45.06 |
ene-16 | 50.66 | 48.15 | 45.06 | 1.54 | 46.61 |
feb-16 | 51.50 | 49.83 | 46.61 | 1.61 | 48.22 |
mar-16 | 51.07 | 50.45 | 48.22 | 1.12 | 49.33 |
abr-16 | 52.45 | 51.45 | 49.33 | 1.06 | 50.39 |
may-16 | 54.41 | 52.93 | 50.39 | 1.27 | 51.66 |
jun-16 | 57.22 | 55.07 | 51.66 | 1.71 | 53.37 |
jul-16 | 55.89 | 55.48 | 53.37 | 1.06 | 54.42 |
ago-16 | 53.49 | 54.49 | 54.42 | 0.03 | 54.46 |
sep-16 | 51.11 | 52.80 | 54.46 | -0.83 | 53.63 |
oct-16 | 50.91 | 51.85 | 53.63 | -0.89 | 52.74 |
nov-16 | 47.35 | 49.60 | 52.74 | -1.57 | 51.17 |
dic-16 | 47.01 | 48.31 | 51.17 | -1.43 | 49.74 |
ene-17 | 46.23 | 47.27 | 49.74 | -1.24 | 48.50 |
feb-17 | 47.42 | 47.34 | 48.50 | -0.58 | 47.92 |
mar-17 | 46.59 | 46.97 | 47.92 | -0.48 | 47.45 |
abr-17 | 46.08 | 46.52 | 47.45 | -0.46 | 46.98 |
may-17 | 43.03 | 44.78 | 46.98 | -1.10 | 45.88 |
jun-17 | 45.60 | 45.19 | 45.88 | -0.35 | 45.53 |
jul-17 | 45.01 | 45.10 | 45.53 | -0.22 | 45.32 |
ago-17 | 43.34 | 44.22 | 45.32 | -0.55 | 44.77 |
sep-17 | 43.50 | 43.86 | 44.77 | -0.45 | 44.31 |
...